Shifts in the Threat-landscape Following the Trump "Raid"
August 10, 2022On Monday, the 8th of August, Donald Trump released a statement on his website claiming the FBI raided his home in Mar-a-Lago, characterizing it as “the weaponization of the Justice System” and “an assault could only take place in broken, Third-World Countries.”
Although the “raid” was a court-authorized search reportedly related to top secret government documents that Trump unlawfully took after he vacated the White House, Trump’s interpretation quickly dominated right-wing media online among extremist groups and establishment Republican channels.
Shortly after Trump’s statement, far-right spaces on the encrypted social media app Telegram were abuzz with the news. Posts featuring QAnon, “Groomer”, and COVID-19 conspiracy theories made way for comments denouncing the search as a “witch hunt” and parroting Trump’s characterization of the FBI and the Justice Department as “weaponized”.
The response from GOP establishment figures was indistinguishable from extremist hate groups like the Proud Boys. Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy’s statement echoed Trump’s words regarding the “weaponized politicization” of the Justice Department, along with an ominous warning to Attorney General Merrick Garland to prepare for an investigation if the Republicans win a majority in the upcoming midterm elections. Other high-profile Republicans, such as Senator Lindsey Graham, followed suit.
In the hours following Trump’s statement, there was a smattering of hastily-organized and poorly-attended demonstrations. This included a protest outside of Mar-a-Lago. The overwhelming atmosphere in online conservative spaces was, however, initially a lot of impotent and unorganized rage. Familiar conspiracies and “whataboutisms” pervaded the conversation: Hillary’s emails, Hunter Biden’s Laptop, fear of the “Deep State”, calls to defund the FBI, etc. However, there is one notable difference from the run-of-the-mill political rhetoric: On Telegram and Twitter, in Facebook groups and on conservative subreddits, the responses grew increasingly ominous.
Far-right figures like Jack Posobiec and Laura Loomer referenced an impending battle for which most would not be prepared. Terms like “civil war” began trending on nearly all social media websites. Increasingly vitriolic language, violent imagery, and threats now permeate not only on national Facebook groups and among Twitter users with millions of followers but also on small local groups with dozens of members. The online climate was and continues to be unlike anything we’ve seen since the tumultuous period following Trump’s 2020 election defeat and the January 6th Attack on the Capitol.
Although the conversations were initially unfocused anger, general statements of a “coming war”, and attacks on familiar targets, by late Monday night and early Tuesday morning, a troubling trend appeared: Across the country, local groups began to plan protests at local FBI field offices. By Wednesday morning, protests had been announced in nearly every state.
(Note: At the time of this writing (August 17th 2022), I suspect that every state has at least one protest planned. However, I have not been able to verify this individually due to the huge volume of responses across all social media platforms. However, I have personally verified dozens of credible calls for protests at FBI field offices, defined as events with detailed plans including—at a minimum—dates, times, and locations.)
Scholars, academics, journalists and analysts specializing in domestic violent extremism are on high alert, just as we were in the lead-up to January 6th. The rapidly intensifying violent rhetoric is evoking an unsettling sense of déjà vu, although there are a few key differences:
Although Trump maintains a relatively robust media presence, he lacks the powerful organizing position he enjoyed before being de-platformed after January 6th.
There is not one clear, obvious, and consequential “target” date and location to direct their rage.
Trump sycophants lack the power over institutions they had following the 2020 election: They are no longer in positions to impede efforts by institutions like the National Guard or various law enforcement agencies to plan to protect and defend potential targets properly.
Some of these differences mitigate threats while others exacerbate them. On one hand, Trump no longer holds a position of immense power, and he lacks the overwhelming social media presence he once had. Since January 6th, Trump’s influence in organizing has waned. As a result of public hearings by the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the Capitol, we know that activists, hate groups, and sycophants in the White House all played a vital role in organizing the events of January 6th. Those same individuals either lack the positions of power, are incarcerated awaiting trial or are currently under intense scrutiny from federal and state investigators, making them less capable of mass mobilization.
On the other hand, it is important that we do not underestimate the dangers of our current political climate.
Conservatives have fed on a steady diet of electoral conspiracy theories since the 2020 election, and they are angrier than ever. Since the failed coup, extremist groups have reorganized and localized. As predicted in our report for the January 6th committee, groups like the Proud Boys have formed bonds with both far-right and “establishment” political groups at the local level over shared grievances, namely CRT, COVID-19 mandates, and LGBTQIA+ affirming efforts and diversity initiatives in K-12 schools.
Although there isn’t a singular obvious target as there was on January 6th, local mobilization efforts in the wake of the coup attempt have shifted the job of tracking and mitigating threats from the federal government to local agencies that are poorly equipped to do so. Furthermore, these efforts have been laser-focused on preparing to influence an incredibly consequential event that is rapidly approaching: The midterm elections.
If we do not take these threats seriously, and if the past is prologue, we may be on the precipice of not one effort to subvert democracy in one city at one time but rather hundreds of organized attempts to subvert democracy at polling places and ballot boxes across the country.
August 17, 2022 Update:In the week since this article was originally written, several troubling events suggest that we are only beginning to see the results of violent rhetoric spurred by Trump and his allies’ disinformation targeting federal law enforcement.
On August 11, 2022, Ricky Shiffer of Columbus, OH, was killed in a shootout with police after trying to breach the Cincinnati FBI office with a nail gun and an AR-15. Shiffer, a Navy veteran who himself handled classified documents during his service, was present on January 6th, and had been on the FBI’s radar since they received a tip about his extremist involvement in May. Before and immediately following the attempted breach of the FBI office, he posted a violent “call to action” on his Truth Social account.
According to a DOJ press release, Adam Bies of Mercer, PA, was arrested on August 12, 2022, for communicating threats against FBI and federal law enforcement officers on the Social Media website Gab, thanks to a tip from the MEMRI Domestic Terrorism Threat Monitor.
Trump and Republican officials have remained largely silent about the attacks on federal agents. Still, despite calls to do so, they have also failed to moderate their condemnations of federal law enforcement, even from Fox & Friends hosts. On August 15, Trump did make the following statement on Fox News: “Whatever we can do to help — because the temperature has to be brought down in the country,” but later that day proceeded to continue condemning the attack on his Truth Social account–suggesting that the offer to reporters at Fox News digital was superficial and meant to “save face” or deflect blame should more violence occur.
In another example of the symmetry between rhetoric from “establishment figures” and extremists, far-right chatter continues to denounce the FBI in increasingly violent terms and plan protests without acknowledging the individuals in Ohio and Pennsylvania. If they are mentioned, it is to praise their efforts at striking out against the “corrupt” agencies targeting Trump.
This is in spite of the fact that warrants unsealed at the request of Attorney General Merrick Garland suggest that Trump and his allies’ condemnations are unfounded. Despite this, the release of the documents was acknowledged among Trump and his allies not as evidence of the search’s legitimacy but rather as a tool to agitate followers further. A former Trump aide and Breitbart News both doxxed FBI agents involved in the search, resulting in widespread threats against those individuals, their families, and their children on Truth Social and other social media platforms.
This has prompted the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security to issue a joint bulletin “warning of an increase in threats to law enforcement following the FBI’s court-authorized search last week of Former President Donald Trump’s Florida home.”
Without widespread condemnation of the increasingly troubling rhetoric, especially from well-respected “MAGA” figures, this will be a long, bumpy road ahead. If things do not change, we will not be dealing with just one January 6th, but rather a January 6th for every state in the country.